Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Final Arcadia Election Results: Peter Amundson, April Verlato win council seats
By Courtney Tompkins, The San Gabriel Valley Tribune
POSTED: 04/21/16, 11:50 AM PDT |

ARCADIA >>Anti-mansionization candidates Peter Amundson and April Verlato will help lead the city for the next four years, according to final election results released Thursday.

The two received the highest number of votes in a field of six candidates, with Amundson securing 4,122 votes and Verlato capturing 4,077.Trailing behind in third with 3,658 votes was veteran councilman Bob Harbicht, who ran again after taking a two-year break in 2014.Following Harbicht was former Councilman Sheng Chang with 2,603 votes, Sheriff’s Sgt. Burton Brink, who got 1,193 votes and insurance adjuster Paul Van Fleet, who had 92 votes.


Amundson and Verlato will be sworn into office at a special City Council meeting on Tuesday. They join Councilmembers Tom Beck, Roger Chandler and Sho Tay on the dais.

NEW ARCADIA SHUTTLE SERVICE COMPLIMENTS GOLD LINE

ARCADIA TRANSIT INTRODUCES NEW SHUTTLE SERVICE
Post Date:03/10/2016 4:52 p.m.
In conjunction with the Metro Gold Line Opening on Saturday, March 5, the City of Arcadia is excited to welcome the start of Metro Gold Line service to Arcadia. With a large number of people expected to use the Gold Line to reach Arcadia and locations within the City, Arcadia Transit introduces a new fixed route/fixed schedule shuttle service that will operate seven days a week, connecting visitors to some of the more popular destinations.
Shuttle service will run from 7:10 a.m. to 6:20 p.m. during the week and 9:20 a.m. to 6:35 p.m. on the weekends, making fixed stops at Santa Anita Park, Methodist Hospital, Westfield Santa Anita and the LA County Arboretum. This is a free service through June 15, 2016.

The current dial-a-ride, on-demand reservation system will still be available to the general public. However, as of June 16, 2016, it will only be accessible to seniors and those with disabilities. At that time, the shuttle service will be expanded to cover different areas of Arcadia. The general public is encouraged to use this new fixed route/fixed schedule service.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Staged to Sell: Confessions of a Home Stager

Published on April 15, 2016  •  At Home

With the popularity of HGTV and DYI shows like “Flip or Flop”, “Property Brothers”, and “Love it or List it”, many more homeowners and REALTORS® are familiar with the term, home staging. Before and after images illustrate how staging creates the wow factor both homebuyers and sellers are seeking. Most clients have never used a stager before, and though they have a sense of what the process accomplishes, they are still reluctant to engage a professional.

We asked home stager Judy Sutherland, founder of Stage3Moves, to share her insights about staging homes throughout the Coachella Valley. Here she answers the top questions both agents and homeowners ask about the process, and its results.
headshotCan home staging actually increase the selling price of a home?

Home staging can indeed increase the selling price of a property, as homeowners are more likely to achieve the full value asking price. Recently, Barbara Corcoran, NY Real Estate mogul and “shark investor” on Sharktank, was the keynote speaker at a RESA, (Real Estate Staging Association) National Conference. She advised that ALL homes need staging, but cautions that staging will not result in a greater sale price if the home is not initially priced correctly. That said, I’ve staged numerous homes or condos where the REALTOR® raised their initial asking price after seeing the home staged. In those cases, the new asking price was achieved.

Home staging typically results in a faster sale, thereby reducing the homeowners carrying costs for mortgage, insurance, and utilities. One thing we know is that staging always costs less than the loss of the first price reduction, so from that viewpoint, staging pays for itself.
What is the staging process and how long does it take?

There are two basic types of staging and a third called a “hybrid.” Vacant Staging, as the name implies is for homes that are completely vacant, either those remodeled by an investor or those vacant because the family has already moved out. Staging these homes is vitally important as most people cannot visualize how furniture will be arranged, if their furniture will fit, and what large open spaces are used for. Vacant staging can take as little time as a few days from the initial viewing to installation and showcasing, depending on furniture delivery schedules.

Occupied Staging is for homes that are furnished. Often people are still living in the homes they are selling. Big, bulky furniture makes a room seem small and hard to navigate. Photographs, collectables, and “stuff” distract buyers from focusing on the home’s features. With occupied homes, I assess all of the furniture, artwork, and accessories in every room to see which pieces will make the best arrangement. Once furniture has been rearranged and accessories displayed, the unused items are prepacked and stored for a later move, donated or sold. Occupied Staging can take as little as several days to a week depending on complexity and what needs to be accomplished.
A “Quick-Stage” can happen in several hours starting with a staging consultation to inform the homeowner what they need to accomplish and then working with them to implement it.
“Hybrid Staging” uses as much of the owner’s furnishings as possible and supplements them with some accessory pieces, artwork, or furniture as needed to create an updated look.
Stage3Moves Before&After
Before & After

What are the biggest misconceptions about home staging?
People confuse home staging with interior design. Stagers are not designing for the homeowner; they are creating spaces that are marketable to distinct types of buyers. Many owners think their homes are perfect just the way they are, however it may not appeal to buyers.
Sometimes homeowners like the feel of their newly staged home so much that they question why they are moving. I have been asked by many homeowners for what I call “Staging to Stay” to make homes feel open, updated, de-cluttered, and with better traffic flow.
People get the most benefit from home staging when it occurs before the property is photographed and listed, not after the fact when it hasn’t sold. The first people who view a new property are usually the best prospective buyers. The old adage that “first impressions count” is really true. There have been several cases where I staged a home after it had been on the market for many months. In those cases, it sold quickly, but there had already been price reductions. Staging at the outset may avoid the lower asking price.

Many believe that home staging is expensive, but it can be very affordable. It can cost as little as a just the consultation fee. It will always be less than the first price reduction and usually results in a faster sale, which minimizes carrying costs.


What are your biggest tips for homeowners?
The number one tip for home sellers is to have a one-hour professional staging consultation. It’s well worth the expense and aims to guide the homeowner in accomplishing the staging priorities. For example, de-clutter, pack collections and pictures, and make sure everything is spotless. Donate items ahead of time that are not recommended for staging and that you are not moving (resale shops will gladly pick them up). Store those recliners and other bulky furniture.
What about the exterior?

Curb-appeal is always important. Many prospective buyers drive by a property first before scheduling a viewing to get a feel for the neighborhood and the home. It’s important that the landscaping is well maintained. Sometimes we recommend additional gardening or potted plants to define the entry. Lighting is also vital because many first-time viewers drive-by in the evening. Shrubs, plants, and doorways should be well lit. I recommend updating lighting fixtures.
Make sure the front door is welcoming and the color is in keeping with the palette of the home. Does it need to be replaced or painted? Be careful about choosing door colors that may not appeal to all buyers and seek professional advice if needed.
How about the mail-box? Often the first object I notice in front of a home is a “beat-up” mailbox. This says a lot about how a home is maintained. Add replacing a damaged mailbox to your “to do” list.


In warm weather locations, especially in the desert, where people use their out-door space all year round, it’s very important to stage the yard and pool area. I suggest creating entertainment and seating areas.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Move over, New York. Beijing is the world's new billionaire capital

By Jonathan Kaiman Contact Reporter Asia China Alibaba Group

China boasts plenty of superlatives: It has the world’s most people, its biggest urban areas and some of its worst air pollution.

Now it has another claim to fame: more billionaires than any other country, according to the newly released Hurun Global Rich List 2016, a respected index of the world’s wealthiest people. Moreover, Beijing, according to the list, has displaced New York as the “billionaire capital of the world,” with 100 billionaires compared with the Big Apple’s 95. Hong Kong, with 64 billionaires, and Shanghai, with 50, also placed in the top five.

After New York, the only U.S. cities in the top 20 were San Francisco, the 12th-ranked city with 28 billionaires, and Los Angeles, No. 19, with 21.

According to the list, released on Wednesday, China is home to 568 billionaires, up 80% since 2013 and surpassing the United States (which has 535) for the first time, despite unprecedented levels of capital flight, a slowing economy and a stock crisis that saw the country’s equity markets plunge by 40% since last summer.

Unlike the U.S. cities, Beijing’s billionaires are all Chinese, Hurun’s founder, Rupert Hoogewerf, said in a phone interview. New York, he said, is “much more international. ... But in terms of super-wealth created, China has been coming up a lot in the past two years, and this is sort of the icing on the cake for it.”

Note - Will this Chinese capital formation result in continued investment in US assets including residential real estate (Arcadia Residential real Estate?) - Eric Rosa  Realtor
Arcadia’s new housing standards will have an immediate impact on neighborhoods

Note- As a realtor working in Arcadia I can attest the the new standards are already having a negative financial impact on tear-down property values. Let's see how over time values will be affected by the new standards which are the result of  so much community  "effort" and dialogue.  Eric Rosa, Realtor

 By Courtney Tompkins, The Pasadena Star-News

POSTED: 04/20/16, 7:13 PM PDT
 |
ARCADIA >> Several residential development projects sitting in the pipeline could be impacted when new housing standards take effect next month, officials said Tuesday.
With a little over 200 projects in various stages of planning as of March 31, Assistant City Manager Jason Kruckeberg said it’s likely that a number of them could be subject to the new zoning codes, which become law on May 20.
The new regulations are part of a comprehensive update to the city’s zoning codes that began nearly two years ago, in part, to fulfill goals laid out in the city’s general plan but also to address residents’ concernsover a controversial development trend known as “mansionization.” The hot-button issue involves demolishing older, smaller homes and replacing them with large ones that often dwarf surrounding dwellings.
Cities across the San Gabriel Valley have taken various approaches to address the issue, including implementing moratoriums on building and/or demolition of older homes, and adopting more stringent building regulations.
Included in Arcadia’s new standards is an element that adds a sliding-scale floor-area ratio for the first time in the city’s history. A floor-area ratio is a development tool that helps determine how large a home can be built on any given lot based on a percentage of the land. Talk of creating a floor-area ratio elicited heated debate on both sides of the issue, with some saying it would help control development and preserve neighborhood character and others saying it could hurt property values.
After very little discussion Tuesday, a rarity for this topic, the City Council voted unanimously to adopt the ordinance and move forward with the residential portion of the zoning code update.
Still, there were concerns about how the city would proceed with pending projects in light of the new regulations, which officials also discussed Tuesday.
Kruckeberg said projects that already have been approved through design review by May 20, either by city staff or various homeowners associations’ architectural review boards, will be grandfathered in under the current codes. Any project that has been issued a “notice of pending decision” by the city by that same deadline also would be processed under current regulations, according to a staff report.
“We felt that was a fair way to regulate the projects in the pipeline in that the majority of projects … would still be able to continue with those rules and we wouldn’t be changing the goal posts on them,” Kruckeberg said.
As of March 31, the city had 205 single-family projects in the pipeline, with 109 in design review. Of those 109, 47 have already been approved and 62 are still awaiting approval, Kruckeberg said.
In addition, there were 96 projects in plan check as of March 31. All of these projects will proceed under the current regulations.
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Councilman Roger Chandler said the intent is not only to be fair, but to avoid a rush of incomplete projects submitted for approval at the last minute.
All projects that have not made it through design review by the deadline would be subject to the new codes, Kruckeberg said.

“Anytime zoning is changed, there is often a bit of a rush to try to beat the clock,” he said. “We want to avoid those types of projects where folks are submitting a hastily drawn plan. We want to make sure these are well thought-out plans that meet the requirements.”

Monday, April 18, 2016

MORTGAGE RATES HIT 2016 LOW: IS NOW TIME TO BUY
By Jeanine Skowronski  4.18.2016

Here's some good news for current house hunters: Mortgage rates hit a new low for the year last week. In fact, rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage are at the lowest mark since May 2013, according to the latest mortgage market survey from Freddie Mac.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.58% with an average 0.5 point for the week ending April 14, 2016, the mortgage purchaser reported. This rate is down from the prior week when it averaged 3.59%, and from a year ago when it averaged 3.67%.
Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 2.86% with an average 0.5 point, down year-over-year from an average of 2.94%. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.84% with an average 0.4 point, down from 2.88% this time last year.
The weekly survey is based on responses Freddie culls from about 125 lenders on the rates and points for their most popular mortgage products.
What's Going on With Rates?
It was widely expected that mortgage rates would gradually rise in 2016 after the Federal Reserve began it's long-speculated move to raise the benchmark federal-funds back in December. (As a quick refresher: the Fed's benchmark federal-funds rate determines how much interest financial institutions pay to borrow from one another — and when it goes up, so does the prime rate, the lowest rate lenders will charge their most creditworthy consumers.)
The current decrease in mortgage rates is related to an unexpected increase in global demand for 10-year Treasuries at the beginning of the year amid global jitters over stagnating growth in China and its ripple effects, among other things, Lynn Fisher, Vice President of Research and Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said.
But, barring another unexpected increase, further moves from the Fed should push long-term rates upward.
"MBA currently forecasts the Fed will make two more moves to increase rates this year, with the first rate hike forecasted for the June meeting," Fisher said in an email. "We think that mortgage rates will rise gradually through the end of the year, averaging about 4.2% in the fourth quarter."
Should I Buy Now?
For those thinking about buying a home in the very near future, it could be good to move on your purchase "to ensure getting a low-rate now" rather than face "the uncertainty in the future," Heather McRae, a senior loan officer for Chicago Financial Services, said.
Still, prospective homeowners shouldn't feel inclined to speed up their search or rush to make a decision, because interest rates are just one piece of the home-buying puzzle.
Home prices, for instance, tend to be higher in low-rate environments and fall in higher-rate environments as financing gets less affordable and demand goes down, Scott Sheldon, a senior loan officer at Sonoma County Mortgages and a Credit.com contributor, said. So, buying now could get you a lower interest rate, but waiting could get you a better deal on the home's purchase price.
At the end of the day, "you've got to kind of watch out for yourself," Sheldon said. "You have to make a decision based on what you feel you can handle."
Generally speaking, before shopping for a mortgage, you want to make sure you can meet down payment requirements, handle monthly mortgage expenses and safely cover other ancillary costs, like real estate agent fees, property taxes, home insurance, and repairs, to name a few.
You also want to be sure your credit score is in tip-top shape. Scores of 740 and higher generally earn the best terms and conditions on a mortgage, so, if you fall below that line, you may want to work on improving your credit score before you seriously look to buy a home. You can pull your free annual credit reports each year at AnnualCreditReport.com or see your credit scores for free each month on Credit.com to learn where your credit currently stands.


Friday, April 15, 2016

ARCADIA ELECTION RESULTS UNDECIDED AFTER CITY RECEIVES 999 MORE BALLOTS

By Courtney Tompkins, The San Gabriel Valley Tribune
POSTED: 04/13/16, 

ARCADIA  The City Council race may not be over just yet.
City Hall received 995 more ballots on Wednesday, and with a little over 400 votes between the second- and third-highest vote getters, the outcome of the race could still be decided after a final count.
After all precincts had been counted on Tuesday, anti-mansionization candidates Peter Amundson and April Verlato were leading the race, with 3,624 and 3,609 votes each, according to semi-official results.
Bob Harbicht, a veteran councilman, trailed behind Verlato, with 3,197 votes. Retired physician Sheng Chang came in fourth, with 2,260 votes, followed by Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Sgt. Burton Brink, who captured 1,049, and grassroots candidate Paul Van Fleet, who snagged 82 votes.
Deputy Chief City Clerk Lisa Mussenden said receiving this many ballots after the election was unprecedented.
“I think we all knew this was going to be a very contentious election, and I think this is a result of all that,” she said, “but to receive 995 ballots the day after, that’s huge.”
All had the proper postmark date and will be counted, she said. About 300 additional ballots that came in on Tuesday still need to be tallied because they did not make the cutoff that night.
The Los Angeles County clerk also received dozens of provisional ballots that must still be counted. Dozens more that came in without signatures must be given back residents for them to sign so that they can be counted, she said.
The second and final count will be completed on April 21.
The city saw record turnout this year, with over 9,000 ballots returned to date.

Because of the thousands of votes left to be tallied, neither Verlato nor Amundson were comfortable declaring victory.

RESULTS UNDECIDED AFTER CITY RECEIVES 999 MORE  BALLOTS

By Courtney Tompkins, The San Gabriel Valley Tribune
POSTED: 04/13/16, 4:18 PM PDT | UPDATED: 1 DAY AGO

ARCADIA >> The City Council race may not be over just yet.
City Hall received 995 more ballots on Wednesday, and with a little over 400 votes between the second- and third-highest vote getters, the outcome of the race could still be decided after a final count.
After all precincts had been counted on Tuesday, anti-mansionization candidates Peter Amundson and April Verlato were leading the race, with 3,624 and 3,609 votes each, according to semi-official results.Bob Harbicht, a veteran councilman, trailed behind Verlato, with 3,197 votes. Retired physician Sheng Chang came in fourth, with 2,260 votes, followed by Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Sgt. Burton Brink, who captured 1,049, and grassroots candidate Paul Van Fleet, who snagged 82 votes.
Deputy Chief City Clerk Lisa Mussenden said receiving this many ballots after the election was unprecedented.
“I think we all knew this was going to be a very contentious election, and I think this is a result of all that,” she said, “but to receive 995 ballots the day after, that’s huge.”
All had the proper postmark date and will be counted, she said. About 300 additional ballots that came in on Tuesday still need to be tallied because they did not make the cutoff that night.
The Los Angeles County clerk also received dozens of provisional ballots that must still be counted. Dozens more that came in without signatures must be given back residents for them to sign so that they can be counted, she said.
The second and final count will be completed on April 21.
The city saw record turnout this year, with over 9,000 ballots returned to date.

Because of the thousands of votes left to be tallied, neither Verlato nor Amundson were comfortable declaring victory.

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Amen - Let's Put This "Draconian" Initiative Away

In a twist, Arcadia anti-mansionization initiative fails to qualify for ballot

By Courtney Tompkins, The Pasadena Star-News
POSTED: 04/05/16

ARCADIA >>A resident-backed initiative targeting mansionization will not make the ballot after the city clerk’s office discovered a discrepancy in the number of qualifying signatures.

The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder had cleared the initiative last week, qualifying it for a future ballot, with only one more signature than the required 2,909, but City Clerk Lisa Mussenden said she found 64 additional signatures that should have been omitted because the accompanying paperwork was not filled out correctly.
“What happened was the circulators’ declarations were not properly filled out so that invalidates all those signatures,“ she said.She said she notified the county of this when she submitted the petition for verification, but somehow the signatures were still qualified.

Saving Arcadia, a local activist group behind the initiative, began efforts in July to take a measure to the voters that would set limits on home size. The initiative aimed to create a citywide floor area ratio (FAR), which, if adopted, would have set much tighter restrictions on square footage.In Februrary, the group submitted a petition with a total of 3,182 signatures to the city.

David Arvizu, the Saving Arcadia spokesman, is disappointed with the outcome, but he doesn’t intend to give up.“It’s a setback but it’s not a defeat,” he said. “It’s just a technical hurdle that we will have to get over.”He said the group may challenge the final count, but first he plans to hire an attorney to review the discrepancies before determining the next step.



Arcadia council election results undecided after city receives 995 more ballots




Arcadia City Council candidates, from top left, Peter Amundson, Burton Brink and Sheng Chang, bottom from left, Paul Van Fleet, Bob Harbicht and April Verlato.
Arcadia City Council candidates, from top left, Peter Amundson, Burton Brink and Sheng Chang, bottom from left, Paul Van Fleet, Bob Harbicht and April Verlato. 



ARCADIA >> The City Council race may not be over just yet.
City Hall received 995 more ballots on Wednesday, and with a little over 400 votes between the second- and third-highest vote getters, the outcome of the race could still be decided after a final count.
After all precincts had been counted on Tuesday, anti-mansionization candidates Peter Amundson and April Verlato were leading the race, with 3,624 and 3,609 votes each, according to semi-official results.
Bob Harbicht, a veteran councilman, trailed behind Verlato, with 3,197 votes. Retired physician Sheng Chang came in fourth, with 2,260 votes, followed by Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Sgt. Burton Brink, who captured 1,049, and grassroots candidate Paul Van Fleet, who snagged 82 votes.
Deputy Chief City Clerk Lisa Mussenden said receiving this many ballots after the election was unprecedented.
“I think we all knew this was going to be a very contentious election, and I think this is a result of all that,” she said, “but to receive 995 ballots the day after, that’s huge.”
All had the proper postmark date and will be counted, she said. About 300 additional ballots that came in on Tuesday still need to be tallied because they did not make the cutoff that night.
The Los Angeles County clerk also received dozens of provisional ballots that must still be counted. Dozens more that came in without signatures must be given back residents for them to sign so that they can be counted, she said.
The second and final count will be completed on April 21.
The city saw record turnout this year, with over 9,000 ballots returned to date.
Because of the thousands of votes left to be tallied, neither Verlato nor Amundson were comfortable declaring victory.
Election 2016: Arcadia voters shoot down Measure A
By Courtney Tompkins, The Pasadena Star-News
POSTED: 04/12/16, 9:05 PM PDT | UPDATED: 1 DAY AGO
ARCADIA >> Voters on Tuesday rejected Measure A, an initiative that aimed to repeal the city’s Utility Users Tax, according to unofficial election results.
With all seven precincts reporting, 4,910 votes were cast against the measure, with 2,735 in favor of it.
The measure needed more than 50 percent of voters to say ‘yes’ for it to pass, but since it didn’t, the UUT rates will remain the same in Arcadia.
Residents and business owners pay a 7 percent tax on their electric, gas and water bills, and 5 percent on telephone bills each month. The UUT is expected to generate $7 million in revenue this year.
The tax is Arcadia’s third-largest source of revenue, behind property and sales taxes. It comprises approximately 12.5 percent of the city’s $54.9 million general fund budget.
A group of residents, backed by the California Tax Limitation Committee, drafted the initiative in attempt to dial back a government they say is “fiscally out of control.” It is part of a broader effort by the TeaPAC organization to repeal utility user taxes statewide. Larry Papp, a longtime resident and proponent of the initiative criticized the continued rise in incomes for government employees while pay for employees in the private sector remains stagnant.
First adopted as a city ordinance in 1970, the tax fluctuated between 5 and 7 percent for nearly four decades. In 2009, a utility users tax initiative was ratified by voters as a requirement under Proposition 218, which requires tax measures to be taken to the public.
In an October presentation on the initiative, city staffers painted a pretty bleak picture of what would happen if the initiative were repealed.
City Manager Dominic Lazzaretto said there could be cuts to city police and fire services along with programs for children and seniors.

Deputy Chief City Clerk Lisa Mussenden said tonight’s results will remain unofficial until a second count on April 21.
Transcending the Single Family HomeWalter Russell Mead  3.19.2016

Monday, April 11, 2016

MORTGAGE RATES NEAR ALL TIME LOW

by Bill McBride on 4/11/2016 11:28:00 AM

With the ten year yield falling to 1.73%, there has been some discussion about whether mortgage rates will fall to new lows. Based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.7%.
As of Friday, Mortgage News Daily reported: "the average lender continuing to quote conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.625% on top tier scenarios." Pretty close to expected.

The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey.


Currently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 1.73% and 30 year mortgage rates were at 3.59% according to the Freddie Mac survey last week.

To reach new lows (on the Freddie Mac survey), mortgage rates would have to fall below the 3.35% lows in 2012.For that to happen, based on the historical relationship, the Ten Year yield would have fall to under 1.5%.

So I don't expect new lows on mortgage rates unless the Ten Year yield falls further.

Monday, April 4, 2016

Was El Nino A Hype?

Posted by Bill McBride on 4/03/2016 08:22:00 PM  149 Comments
The El Niño Bust in California
by Bill McBride on 4/03/2016 11:10:00 AM

From Accuweather: El Nino-induced snow proves to be 'disappointing' for drought-stricken California
Much-needed mountain snow and rain returned to California this winter, but fell short of expectations amid a super El Niño.
The official snow season for California's Sierra Nevada came to an end at the start of April on a below-normal note and one that AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark called "disappointing."
The amount of water stored in the snow for the entire mountain chain averaged 14 percent below normal on April 1, according to the California Cooperative Snow Surveys.
The northern Sierra fared better than the southern Sierra with the amount of water in the snow averaging only 5 percent below normal, compared to the 27 percent below normal in the south.
"The numbers are not anywhere near what many had wanted going into the winter," Clark said. "The much-heralded El Niño brought more snow than the previous four years, but that was not hard to accomplish."
Here are some excellent graphs showing snow water content in the Sierra. This was close to an average year in the Northern Sierra, but below average in Central and South. There was more rain and snow than the previous four years, but this will still be considered year 5 of the drought.
Tyndall CreekNote: For Pacific Crest Trail and John Muir Trail hikers, I recommend using the Upper Tyndall Creek sensor to track the snow conditions. This is the fifth dry year in a row along the JMT, but there should be more water along the trail this summer than the previous four years, and still not too much snow on the passes.

This graph shows the snow water content for Upper Tyndall Creek for the last 9 years. There is more snow than the previous four years, but that isn't saying much.


ARCADIA MANSIONIZATION BALLOT MEASURE INITIATIVE

In November 2015 I was interviewed by Arcadia Weekly regarding the Arcadia Ballot Measure Initiative which recently cleared signature verification with the County. My conclusion: passsage of the initiative would be catastrophic to Arcadia residential property values. Please read the Arcadia Weekly article and the following blog post article about the initiative. Eric Rosa

Eric Rosa, Realtor Explains Arcadia Residential Land Investment
By Joe Taglieri

As the war of words over residential development in Arcadia steadily intensifies, members of the local real estate community have recently begun publicly speaking out about efforts to limit home size.
Throughout the last couple of months Joe Sira of Dilbeck Real Estate and a member of the Arcadia Association of Realtors have consistently attended City Council meetings to denounce a proposed voter initiative that seeks to revise design guidelines for single-family residences.
Last week another Arcadia-based real estate professional added his perspective to the debate. Like Sira, Eric Rosa foresees potentially dire consequences for stakeholders’ property values and real estate developers’ profit margins if the measure, which is still in the petition-gathering phase and not yet on the upcoming election’s ballot, becomes law.
“When you hear that big homes are hurting real estate values, and particularly in southwest Arcadia, it’s not true,” Rosa told the council at its Nov. 3 study session.
Referring to ballot measure supporters’ petition drive, Rosa added, “When we see people standing in front of the post office … you will never hear real economics, all it is ‘mansionization, mansionization.'”
In an interview Rosa presented a detailed set of economic data to augment his thoughts on the voter initiative and the city’s ongoing zoning code update process.
Rosa believes the measure’s petition effort will be successful in gathering the more than 3,000 signatures needed to qualify for the April 12 ballot.
He cautioned that if voters enact the proposed tougher limits on square footage, the policy revamp “can’t be overturned by elected officials” and would require a ballot initiative in 2018 to rescind voter-approved code amendments.
“The thing that concerns me about the referendum is how drastic and significant the proposed zoning ordinances are relative to what we have now,” Rosa said. “They could have anywhere near to a 35 to 50 percent decrease in teardown property values, and I think there will be ancillary reductions in other property values.”
To illustrate his point, Rosa – a 31-year Arcadia resident with a background in real estate finance who currently is a realtor at the local Coldwell Banker office – offered what he called a hypothetical “case study” examining the initiative’s potential impact on the realty market. Rosa’s bottom line: a nearly 50 percent decline in lot value if voters enact the proposed design guidelines for new homes.
Rosa used current building regulations to reflect the following scenario, which would result in a developer erecting an 8,200-square-foot, two-story home with a four-car garage, high-ceiling foyer and covered patios and porches on a 20,000-square-foot lot:
Land (20,000 square feet x $95) $1.9 million; construction costs (8,200 square feet x $200) $1.64 million; costs related to architecture and engineering (8,200 square feet x $20) $164,000; city and school fees (8,200 square feet x $8.25 + $1,000) $68,650; building contingency, legal and miscellaneous costs (8,200 square feet x $7.50) $61,500; bank financing interest $90,000; total cost about $3.9 million.
Rosa then estimated the following for the newly built home’s sale proceeds and return on investment for the property owner:
Sale price (8,200 square feet x $625) approximately $5.1 million; sale expenses (6 percent for marketing, realtor commission, title transfer, miscellaneous) $307,500; net sale price about $4.8 million; construction project total cost about $3.9 million; Net profit $892,500 or 23 percent of project cost.
Rosa also created another scenario based on the voter initiative’s proposed building rules – 35 percent of lot coverage for the first 10,000 square feet of a lot and 15 percent for remaining square footage over the first 10,000, as well as total square footage reflecting space consumed by the garage, porches, patios and the hypothetical residence’s high-ceiling foyer, which counts for double the floor area’s square footage:
Land (20,000 square feet x $50) $1 million; construction costs (4,300 square feet x $200) $860,000; costs related to architecture and engineering (4,300 square feet x $20) $86,000; city and school fees (4,300 square feet x $8.25 + $1,000) $36,475; building contingency, legal and miscellaneous costs (4,300 square feet x $7.50) $32,250; bank financing interest $40,000; total cost about $2.1 million.
According to Rosa profit shrinks considerably as a result of the proposed code revision:
Sale price (4,300 square feet x $625) approximately $2.7 million; sale expenses (6 percent for marketing, realtor commission, title transfer, miscellaneous) $161,250; net sale price about $2.5 million; construction project total cost about $2.1 million; Net profit $471,250 or 23 percent of project cost.
Rosa acknowledged that his conservative hypothetical focuses on the most consistent elements of a real estate investment. Additional factors such as the amount of time it takes to complete a construction project then sell a new home affects the overall return on investment as does the proportion of an investor’s actual cash stake in a property versus the amount of financing provided by a bank.
Rosa’s model concludes that for both sets of development guidelines an investor’s “annual equity return” amounts to 36 percent based on a 15-month time frame with 50 percent leverage.
“Most developers wouldn’t use these numbers, they’d want more,” Rosa said. “The reason being is there’s so much risk involved. You put up a couple million bucks in this thing or even more and the market goes south, or you have a 9/11, or some recession goes off and the stock market blows up, or the Chinese decide not to come and buy your house and you know what? You’ve got a big liability, and that’s why everybody isn’t a developer.”
Citing data on new home sales from the industry-standard Multiple Listing Service, or MLS, Rosa reported that the average lot size in Arcadia was 17,098 feet, the average new home size was 6,628 square feet and the average new home sold for $3.9 million.
“Demand for new Arcadia homes appears strong and slightly greater than demand in 2014,” Rosa said, countering claims that “China’s recent economic malaise will result in a decreasing demand” for new homes in Arcadia.

Through Oct. 1 “MLS reported 55 new Arcadia … home sales. This sale pace/velocity is ahead of 2014’s pace,” Rosa added. “For all of 2014 MLS reported 58 new Arcadia … home sales” with a median sale price of $3.2 million and average $610 per square foot, an average size of 5,563 square feet on a 14,207-square-foot lot and lot coverage of 32 percent.

Friday, April 1, 2016

ARCADIA MEASURE ON MANSIONIZATION QUALIFIES FOR BALLOT

Arcadia Measure On Mansionization Qualifies For Ballot
By Courtney Tompkins, The Pasadena Star-News
POSTED: 03/31/16, 4:33 PM PDT | UPDATED: 2 HRS AGO

ARCADIA >> Home size may ultimately come down to a vote of the people after a resident-backed initiative targeting mansionization cleared signature verification with the county this week.

The count came down to the wire, ­though, as the initiative qualified with only one more signature than the required 2,909, which represents 10 percent of the city’s registered voters.

If adopted, the initiative would create a citywide floor area ratio (FAR), which would set much tighter restrictions on square footage.

City Clerk Lisa Mussenden said the measure could come before voters as soon as November, along with state and national elections, or as far out as April 2018, with the next municipal election.The city could also opt to hold a special election, but that would cost taxpayers upwards of $100,000, she said.

Saving Arcadia, a local group behind the initiative, began drafting it in July in an attempt to address unrest in the community over mansionization, which is commonly defined as the practice of demolishing smaller, older houses and replacing them with new ones that occupy the maximum amount of lot space possible.

The idea came after a controversial City Council vote — made by Roger Chandler, Sho Tay and John Wuo — that halted a citywide zoning code update and historic preservation survey.The vote prompted threats of recall against the trio as residents said they felt the elected officials suspended the study as an act of retaliation over a pending lawsuit some residents filed against the city.The lawsuit, which targeted the cumulative impacts of mansionization, has since been settled.

Saving Arcadia spokesman David Arvizu said the group is glad to be over the first big hurdle, but he said they are concerned the city could keep the initiative from going to the voters for two years.“I would be very disappointed if the city tried to stall this out by making excuses and delaying the process in which the residents of Arcadia can decide about what they want to do about their city zoning codes,” he said.

But city officials are concerned that a ballot initiative is not the way to address and some say it could hurt home values.

“The initiative would have to have some effect on property values and it has to have a substantial effect on resale values,” Councilman Mickey Segal said.
Councilman Tom Beck echoed Segal’s sentiments, calling it “much more restrictive” than what’s on the table for passage on Tuesday.

The city is days away from holding a public hearing on several recommended updates to its residential development standards, including adopting a sliding scale FAR that varies based on neighborhood and lot size.“What’s in front of us now to approve is a perfect definition of a middle ground,” Segal said.

Proponents of the ballot initiative include representatives of three homeowners’ associations in northern Arcadia: April Verlato, Laurie Thompson and Richard Midgley.Verlato, a candidate for City Council, has withdrawn herself from the group during the election but said she still supports its efforts.

Beck said there is still a chance the proponents will be content with the development standards the council adopts and may choose to withdraw the initiative.

But Verlato said it’s still too early to make that determination.
“We will need to see what happens with the zoning code recommendations and this election,” she said. Mussenden said the initiative will likely go before the City Council at one of the next two meetings, on Tuesday or April 19.

The council still needs to accept the signature certification from the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder and then make some decisions regarding it, including whether they want to adopt the ordinance as is or conduct a study on the anticipated impacts and place it on a future ballot.


Dan Walters: New California Color Is Gray,
Not Gold, As Aging Tsunami Arrives

BY DAN WALTERS, Sacramento Bee
dwalters@sacbee.com

From the beach party movies of the 1960s to the hippies of the 1970s and Silicon Valley’s baby billionaires today, California has long projected a youthful ambiance.
That’s about to change in a big way. The aging of California’s huge post-World War II baby-boom generation, combined with plummeting birth and immigration rates, means the Golden State is quickly going gray.

A huge growth in the over-65 population, from about 4.5 million today to more than 11 million by 2050 – nearly a quarter of the state’s residents then – will disrupt labor markets as it imposes major new costs on taxpayers for health care and other services.
It could also alter the state’s politics as the elderly become a decisive voting bloc, not only because of rising numbers but because the propensity to vote increases with age.

First, the numbers.Roughly 11 percent of the nearly 40 million Californians today are 65-plus. The state Department of Finance estimates that by 2020, the over-65 cohort will rise to 15 percent, then to nearly 20 percent by 2030, when the youngest of the baby boomers will pass 65, and reach 22.3 percent by 2050, double the current proportion.

One state document puts it this way: “California will surpass the national average for age by 2040 even though it is currently the sixth youngest state in the nation with only 11 percent of its population 65 and older.

Over the next 15 years, those passing the 65-year-old threshold will be mostly white, but later will become a more ethnically mixed group. While the median age of Californians as a whole is about 35 years today, the white median is 44, much higher than that of Latinos (27), blacks (35) or Asians (38). The differentials will narrow over the next 35 years, but even in 2050, the median age of Latinos (38) is expected to be 11 years lower than whites (49).

The most visible effect of these trends will be in California’s workplaces.Baby boomers are roughly 40 percent of the 20 million Californians of working age – 25 to 64. Over the next 15 years the vast majority will leave the labor force, claiming their pensions and Social Security payments and tapping into their personal retirement accounts and home equity, if they have them.

Some will continue to work part-time, but retirements will leave big holes – especially in the ranks of workers with specialized education and skills.

The Public Policy Institute of California has repeatedly highlighted a growing shortage of college-educated workers due to the baby boomers’ exodus from the workforce, the increasing proportion of jobs demanding four-year or higher degrees and doubts about having enough Latinos to fill the jobs because “this group has relatively low levels of educational attainment.”


In the coming decades,” PPIC says in one report, “slower growth in the supply of college-educated workers